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As for the Fed, we look for 50 (basis points, a half-percentage point) next week. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

As for the Fed, we look for 50 (basis points, a half-percentage point) next week.

Ian Shepherdson

This [report] suggests strongly that the distortions caused by the provisions of the March economic stimulus package are now fading and that the underlying -- downward -- trend in claims is starting to re-emerge, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This [report] suggests strongly that the distortions caused by the provisions of the March economic stimulus package are now fading and that the underlying -- downward -- trend in claims is starting to re-emerge,

Ian Shepherdson

He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

He used the word 'pre-emptive,' which was the signal he used before the March 1997 rate hike,

Ian Shepherdson

We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We think the relief is temporary; no other data supports the slowdown story,

Ian Shepherdson

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out,

Ian Shepherdson

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We expect a drop to 390,000 [next week], but an even lower number cannot be ruled out.

Ian Shepherdson

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

The survey has a good track record and the signal it is sending cannot be welcome at the Fed.

Ian Shepherdson

If this trend [in jobless claims] continues, September payrolls will surely fall outright, and the bizarre drop in the unemployment rate in August will reverse. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

If this trend [in jobless claims] continues, September payrolls will surely fall outright, and the bizarre drop in the unemployment rate in August will reverse.

Ian Shepherdson

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.

Ian Shepherdson

Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Just about everyone who buys a house uses a mortgage, so a sustained drop in mortgage demand tells you where home sales are going, regardless of the current sales data.

Ian Shepherdson

Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Eventually, we do expect housing to lead the economy into a sustained slowdown, but it will take time, and patience is not the markets' most obvious virtue,

Ian Shepherdson

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This increase reflects the upturn in the markets in recent weeks; any further gain in the near-term requires a further firming of stocks,

Ian Shepherdson

For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate.

Ian Shepherdson

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Another 25 basis point palliative ease in August seems a good bet. But the big easing story is over.

Ian Shepherdson

We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We expect the index to fall over the next couple of months as the latest huge surge in gas prices bites.

Ian Shepherdson

Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Once rebuilding gets underway in earnest in the Gulf Coast, we expect much stronger construction numbers across the board. But that will be a story for the very end of this year and into 2006.

Ian Shepherdson

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

Ian Shepherdson

[The switch is] presumably to squash speculation that they are embarking on a new sequence of rate cuts, ... This is sensible -- they can always change their mind if they have to, but in the near term it will quiet the markets. It is also consistent with their medium-term view that the economy will indeed recover in the not-too-distant future. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

[The switch is] presumably to squash speculation that they are embarking on a new sequence of rate cuts, ... This is sensible -- they can always change their mind if they have to, but in the near term it will quiet the markets. It is also consistent with their medium-term view that the economy will indeed recover in the not-too-distant future.

Ian Shepherdson

At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

At last some good -- or at least not so bad -- news, ... don't change the overall trade picture, but we think the worst news is over.

Ian Shepherdson

There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.

Ian Shepherdson

Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Overall, this is a very robust report. There was a big upward revision to November orders excluding transportation, to a gain of 0.6% from down 0.6%.

Ian Shepherdson

We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We fully expect sentiment to drop sharply, putting in place the conditions for much softer consumer spending numbers.

Ian Shepherdson

The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.

Ian Shepherdson

If low interest rates mean [Thursday's ISM] reading can be sustained, then the economy appears set for takeoff, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

If low interest rates mean [Thursday's ISM] reading can be sustained, then the economy appears set for takeoff,

Ian Shepherdson

It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

It's not guaranteed that we're going to get a recession now, though I have to say that the evidence from NAPM is not encouraging,

Ian Shepherdson

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

By early next year we expect starts to have begun to decline, though activity can probably remain close to current levels for another couple of months,

Ian Shepherdson

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

We expect further gains over the next couple of months in the wake of the plunge in gasoline prices. If we're right, the data will signal first quarter consumption growth of the order of 4 percent.

Ian Shepherdson

There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims]. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There's no question that these numbers have been persistently disappointing in recent weeks, ... It's not that layoffs are accelerating again -- we think the underlying trend [of claims] is stable at about 390,000 -- it is that we expected clearer signs of an outright decline [in the number of claims].

Ian Shepherdson

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,

Ian Shepherdson

With [manufacturing] activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see [Monday's ISM] report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

With [manufacturing] activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see [Monday's ISM] report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy,

Ian Shepherdson

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.

Ian Shepherdson

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations. We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

Ian Shepherdson

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This jump in inventories will marginally lift second quarter GDP growth expectations, ... We look for growth of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, with inventories adding some 0.75 percent.

Ian Shepherdson

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.

Ian Shepherdson

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

One steep drop in housing starts does not make a downward trend, especially in a month which was very wet in the West and very cold in the Northeast. Still, the data are consistent with other signs of a softening housing market, most notably the drop in homebuilders' confidence. What really matters, though, is whether sales will fall fast enough to turn a softening into a collapse.

Ian Shepherdson

Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.

Ian Shepherdson

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

At 296,000, claims have slipped back to a five-week low, ... This is simply too low a level to be consistent with a major change in the labor market.

Ian Shepherdson

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.

Ian Shepherdson

This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This is a welcome surprise; the trend in claims in recent weeks has been strongly upwards.

Ian Shepherdson

If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

If these declines were part of the normal economic cycle we would now call for a recession in the U.S., but they aren't. The index is responding to a shock, and we expect it quickly to rebound.

Ian Shepherdson

The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

The improvement in the stock market is allowing the hugely favorable monetary and fiscal environment to do its work -- just as it was in the spring before the stock market melted down,

Ian Shepherdson

At least [economic activity] is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

At least [economic activity] is no longer 'decelerating,' as reported in the previous beige book,

Ian Shepherdson

This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This reads like they are more scared than they have been willing to admit. And that they are ready to cut rates further - maybe soon.

Ian Shepherdson

This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for.

Ian Shepherdson

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

After 9/11, the index made up all the ground lost, and more, by January '02. This seems as good a guide as any now, though in the meantime we expect a couple of very rough months for consumers' spending.

Ian Shepherdson

There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

There is nothing here that looks remotely inflationary,

Ian Shepherdson

Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

Still, this is a hugely encouraging report, pointing clearly to a vigorous recovery.

Ian Shepherdson

The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices, - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices,

Ian Shepherdson

The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow. - Ian Shepherdson Quotes

The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.

Ian Shepherdson

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